Probabilistic Verification of Monthly Temperature Forecasts
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
A complex autoregressive model and application to monthly temperature forecasts
A complex autoregressive model was established based on the mathematic derivation of the least squares for the complex number domain which is referred to as the complex least squares. The model is different from the conventional way that the real number and the imaginary number are separately calculated. An application of this new model shows a better forecast than forecasts from other conventi...
متن کاملVerification tools for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables
In the present paper we describe some methods for verifying and evaluating probabilistic forecasts of hydrological variables. We propose an extension to continuous-valued variables of a verification method originated in the meteorological literature for the analysis of binary variables, and based on the use of a suitable cost-loss function to evaluate the quality of the forecasts. We find that ...
متن کاملThe Verification of Probabilistic Forecasts in Decision and Risk Analysis
The Verification of Probabilistic Forecasts in Decision and Risk Analysis by Victor Richmond R. Jose Department of Business Administration Duke University
متن کاملSpatially adaptive, Bayesian estimation for probabilistic temperature forecasts
Uncertainty in the prediction of future weather is commonly assessed through the use of forecast ensembles that employ a numerical weather prediction model in distinct variants. Statistical postprocessing can correct for biases in the numerical model and improves calibration. We propose a Bayesian version of the standard ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) postprocessing method, in which sp...
متن کاملProbabilistic Forecasts of Solar Insolation
Meteorological forecasts of incident solar radiation are valuable for solar resource owners and others. Most previously described forecast methods provide a single predicted value. However, a well-calibrated forecast probability distribution is more useful in that it could be used to make optimum decisions under any decision rule. We demonstrate methods of constructing and evaluating probabilis...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Monthly Weather Review
سال: 2008
ISSN: 1520-0493,0027-0644
DOI: 10.1175/2008mwr2551.1